Modelling & Assessments

Modelling & Assessments

The results of scientific and technical assessments provide important information for the implementation of measures on the ground related to disaster risk management as well as water resource management. The Swiss technical assistance refers to the development and application of a solid assessment methodologies. In many cases these are based on digital models (eg. hydraulic floods models, glacio-hydrological models etc). Such models are very useful when direct results cannot be measured and in order to anticipate impacts of future scenario related to climate change, to test the impact of different regulatory interventions or other external factors. In the frame of Swiss funded projects SCA-Himalayas, IHACP the following models and assessments have been development / applied:

  • GLOFs modelling and assessments (Sikkim):
  • GLOF risk assessment across IHR for the identification of critical lakes
  • Elaboration of NDMA Guidelines on assessments and management of GLOF
  • Numerical modelling for GLOFs based on process chain modelling and flood routing
  • Preliminary detailed hazard modelling (South Lhonak lake)
  • First-order assessment for GLOFs (Shako Cho and South Lhonak Lake)
  • Hazard and exposure mapping for GLOFs (Shako Cho and South Lhonak Lake)
  • Hydraulic modelling of floods propagation downstream of an hydropower plant (HEC-RAS)
The results of these modelling works and assessment shall help to shape a pilot EWS on GLOFs.
  • Flash floods modelling and assessments (Himachal Pradesh):
    • General hazard assessments of floods, GLOFs, landslides, snow avalanches
    • GLOF risk assessment on houses, roads and agricultural land
    • GIS-based modelling and hydraulic modelling
  • Landslides modelling and assessments (Uttarakhand)
    • Landslide susceptibility assessment based on remote sensing data (Synthetic Aperture Radar /SAR 2015-20)
    • Elaboration of a precipitation based landslide model (landslide susceptibility model)
    • Landslide hazard assessment for the identification of hotspot areas
  • Assessment of SAR-data for landslide mapping (Sikkim, Uttarakhand)
    • Analysis of remote sensing data using Synthetic Aperture Radar data (SAR-data 2015 to 2020) based on interferometry in order to identify surface deformations, namely landslides and instable areas which were summarized in deformation-velocity maps
  • Thermomechanical modelling of rock-ice avalanches (Uttarakhand)
    • Development of a numeric model (based on RAMMS) for mass movements, in particular snow / ice avalanches, debris flows, rockslides and rockfalls, comparable to the Chamoli disaster event 2021
    • Application of the model through simulations for large scale hazard indication mapping to assess the effects of climate change at the regional scale, to anticipate the consequences of damming of rivers and subsequent flooding and to effectively allocate resources for mitigation infrastructure
  • Climate Vulnerability framework and assessment (Pan-INDIA)
    • Elaboration of a standardized methodology for vulnerability assessment based on data related to socio-economics/livelihoods, biophysical conditions and institutions/infrastructure. (common framework, elaborated in close collaboration with the Department of Science and Technology (DST)
    • Pan-India vulnerability assessment at state and district level with indices for ranking and prioritization
    • Elaboration of a standard method for a risk assessment related to floods and droughts
    • Application of a Pan-India Risk assessment at state and district level
  • Modelling for water resource management (Uttarakhand)
    • Development and application of glacio-hydrological modelling (Spatial Processes in Hydrology /SPHY model) along with guidelines
    • Water allocation modelling (Water Evaluation and Planning / WEAP model)
    • Development of a Decision Support System (DSS) and an integrated water resource management plan (IWRM) considering the modelling results
  • Decision support systems (DSS) for assessments and planning
    • Development of a climate change DSS for Water resource management of a reservoir System in Madhya Pradesh, to assess the impacts of climate change, to evaluate and optimize water allocation for different sectors, combined with a guideline for upscaling to multi-purpose dams based on a case study Application on Samrat Ashok Sagar Dam and Bargi Dam in Madhya Pradesh
    • Development of a DSS for water resources assessment and allocation tailored to glacier- and snow-fed basins/sub-basins considering the results of the modelling works (Bhagirathi river basin, Uttarakhand)
    • Development of a standardized open access online DSS and guidelines for springshed management interventions based on a six-step protocol
  • Analysis for springshed management (Sikkim, Uttarakhand)
    • Isotopic analysis to assess water flow and patterns in complex mountain contexts through analysis of ground water and rain data using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to order to define the extension and dynamics of spring watersheds for an effective planning of relevant locations and typology of field measures such as terracing, trenches, plantations etc.
    • Insitu measurements (eg. pH, TDS, EC, temperature), installation of automatic devices for remote information (eg. automatic weather stations and sensors, flumes for springs discharge measurement, rain gauges), laboratory analysis (e.g. iron, alkalinity, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium) for the analysis of parameters related to water quality and quantity (eg. spring discharge, rain patterns)